经济论文哪里有？本研究的结果为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了宝贵的见解，以促进可持续和包容性贸易。通过利用扩展引力模型，研究揭示了驱动乍得阿拉伯胶国际贸易的复杂因素，为平衡经济发展、资源安全和环境后果的决策提供了依据。
1 Introduction
1.2 Literature review
This section aims to review the existing literature on international trade theories, gravity models, and previous studies related to the natural gum trade. It will also explore the Chadian Gum Arabic potential and impact factors that contribute to the international trade market.
1.2.1 Research Abroad
Gum Arabic, the major export commodity for Chad, plays an essential role in the nation's economy, especially in the agricultural sector [2]. Chad is positioned as a prominent 103 actor in international commerce due to the global need for this product, which employs 104 in sectors including food, pharmaceuticals, adhesives, printing, ceramics, cosmetics, and 105 beverage industries, with 30% used in aerospace and explosives [3]. Researchers are increasingly relying on the gravity model of international trade. As such, we adopted it to evaluate the trade potential of Chadian Gum Arabic and pinpoint essential influence elements. This model traditionally incorporates characteristic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), distance, and language to forecast bilateral trade flows. However, augmenting the gravity model with variables specific to Chad, including historical ties (e.g., colonial relationships) and geographical proximity (e.g., shared borders), provides a deeper understanding of Chadian Gum Arabic's trade dynamics. The global demand for Gum Arabic has significantly increased since 2000. By 2022, the global market value was projected at USD 897.3 million, with expectations to reach USD 1.79 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% [1]. Acacia Senegal and Acacia Seyal remain the primary sources of high-quality gum. The largest producers continue to be Sudan, Chad, and Nigeria, which collectively contribute more than 95% of global exports [1]. In 2022, Chad alone exported USD 30.6 million worth of Gum Arabic, making it the third-largest exporter worldwide [1]. The gravity model, derived initially from Newton's law of gravit
3 Status analysis of industries and production of CGA
3.1 The structure of the republic of Chad economy
The Republic of Chad, located in north-central Africa, possesses a diverse and evolving economy shaped by various factors, including natural resources, agriculture, and infrastructure development. Internal and external forces influence the economy's structure, and understanding its composition is essential for comprehending the country's economic landscape. Chad's economy is primarily driven by the extraction and export of natural resources, particularly oil. The oil sector has significantly shaped the country's economic structure, contributing to government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. However, the heavy reliance on oil has also made the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices, highlighting the need for diversification.
Agriculture is another crucial component of Chad's economy, employing a large portion of the population and contributing to domestic consumption and export revenue. The agricultural sector encompasses a range of activities, including subsistence farming, livestock rearing, and the production of cash crops such as cotton and Gum Arabic. The sector faces productivity, infrastructure, and climate variability challenges despite its significance. In addition to oil and agriculture, Chad's economy is influenced by its infrastructure development and international partnerships. The government has been investing in infrastructure projects to improve transportation, energy, and telecommunications, essential for fostering economic growth and connectivity within the country. Furthermore, Chad's economic structure is shaped by its relationships with international partners and organizations, which provide financial assistance, investment, and technical expertise.
5 Research design and methodology
5.1 Data collection
In conducting this research, we collected both primary and secondary data from the observatory economy complexity (https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/gum-arabic ), as well as the DataBank - WorldBank (https://databank.worldbank.org/ ) data. The primary data are collected through methods such as interviews and observations. The secondary data are extracted from the observatory economy complexity and the DataBank-WorldBank websites, as the links are provided above. From the OEC platform, we extracted the dataset from 1997 to 2021, comprising 114 countries and 540 observations. Fig. 4-1 below illustrates the observatory economy complexity page for Chad Gum Arabic Export-Imports.
5.2 Model estimation
The research model presents a suitable model to explore the potential and impact factors of Chadian Gum Arabic International trade. The Chadian Gum Arabic international trade in our gravity model framework on the relationship between dependent (Trade Value) and independent (GDP, Distance, Language, Colony, Border, Landlock) variables. The aim of this model is to exhibit the potential and impact factors of Chadian Gum Arabic international trade under the following research hypotheses illustrated in Fig.4-2. In estimating our model in Eq.3, the fixed-effects Lease Square Dummy variables (LSDV) estimator (a statistical technique used in econometrics) [10, 51, 88, 89] has been used to control the unobserved heterogeneity across individuals in the datasets. By including these variables, we can account for individual-specific characteristics that may affect the outcome variable but are not directly observable or measurable. Fixed effects lease square dummy variables help address endogeneity issues. Endogeneity occurs when the explanatory variables are correlated with the error term, leading to biased estimates. We can mitigate endogeneity concerns and obtain more reliable results by including these variables. Fixed effects lease square dummy variables can capture time-invariant characteristics that may influence the outcome variable. For example, if we analyze the impact of different lease terms on rental prices, including dummy variables for each lease term allows us to control for any fixed effects associated with those terms. Moreover, other potential endogenous variables, such as ijtTA, jLANDLOCK, ijBORDER. This is because trade policy is not entirely exogenous, and increased resource imports may also impact these variables [88].
7 Conclusions, Suggestions, and Future Work
7.1 Conclusions
Chadian Gum Arabic is a valuable commodity in international trade, with its demand steadily increasing over the years. From 2003 to 2023, the estimation of international trade for this product has been quite promising. In 2003, Chadian Gum Arabic started gaining recognition in the global market. Its unique properties and wide range of applications in various industries made it a sought-after product. The estimated trade volume for that year was modest but showed growth potential. As the years went by, the demand for Chadian Gum Arabic continued to rise. Its usage in the food and beverage industry as a stabilizer, thickener, and emulsifier contributed significantly to its increasing popularity. Additionally, its application in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and textiles further fueled its demand. By 2010, the international trade of Chadian Gum Arabic had experienced substantial growth. The estimated trade volume had more than doubled compared to 2003, reflecting the increasing awareness and utilization of this product worldwide. The following years witnessed a steady upward trend in the international trade of Chadian Gum Arabic. Its reputation as a natural and sustainable alternative to synthetic additives and thickeners further boosted its demand. The estimated trade volume continued to grow, surpassing previous records each year. By 2015, Chadian Gum Arabic had established itself as a key player in international trade. Its versatility and eco-friendly nature made it a preferred choice for many industries. The estimated trade volume for that year reached an all-time high, indicating the immense value placed on this product globally. The years that followed saw a slight fluctuation in the international trade of Chadian Gum Arabic. However, the overall trend remained positive, with the estimated trade volume consistently increasing. This highlighted the resilience and stability of this commodity in the global market. Looking ahead, the estimation for 2023 suggests a continued growth in the international trade of Chadian Gum Arabic. The demand for natural and sustainable products is expected to rise, further driving the popularity of this commodity. The estimated trade volume for that year is projected to exceed all previous records, indicating a bright future for Chadian Gum Arabic in international trade.
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